393
FXUS62 KTBW 090710
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, THE PERSISTENT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF, BUT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA UNDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW, CONTINUING THE RECENT PATTERN OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHIFTING INTO THE COAST AT TIMES, THEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR VIRTUALLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, PUSHING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE PROGRESS WILL BE GRADUAL, WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY, AND GENERALLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH EACH DAY. BUT BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BE COMPLETE, WITH ONLY 10-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER RAIN COVERAGE, HUMIDITY
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY DISRUPTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CEILINGS. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEGINNING AROUND 16-19Z, MOSTLY CLEARING OUT AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DRIFT WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL
LAY DOWN BY MID MORNING, BUT WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
DEEP MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO HUMIDITY
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 76 88 76 / 80 50 80 30
FMY 87 76 89 76 / 80 50 70 30
GIF 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 80 30
SRQ 86 74 88 75 / 80 60 70 40
BKV 86 71 87 71 / 90 50 80 20
SPG 84 75 86 75 / 80 60 80 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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