605
FXUS62 KTBW 091305
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WITH SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE, PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES SO THAT WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, THE PERSISTENT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF, BUT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA UNDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW, CONTINUING THE RECENT PATTERN OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHIFTING INTO THE COAST AT TIMES, THEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR VIRTUALLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, PUSHING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE PROGRESS WILL BE GRADUAL, WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY, AND GENERALLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH EACH DAY. BUT BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BE COMPLETE, WITH ONLY 10-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER RAIN COVERAGE, HUMIDITY
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DRIFT WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL
LAY DOWN BY MID MORNING, BUT WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
DEEP MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO HUMIDITY
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 76 88 76 / 80 50 80 30
FMY 87 76 89 76 / 80 50 70 30
GIF 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 80 30
SRQ 86 74 88 75 / 80 60 70 40
BKV 86 71 87 71 / 90 50 80 20
SPG 84 75 86 75 / 80 60 80 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
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