689
FXUS62 KTBW 091830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS USHERING IN SOME DRIER
INTO THE NATURE COAST WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES HERE.
ELSEWHERE FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTH, THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.
BY FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT NATURE COAST TO 60
PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE DRIER AIR, PRECIPITABLE WATER DIPPING TO LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES, WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
ALSO, THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE WEEKEND WE'LL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, WITH SOME
UPPER 60S DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS, AND
THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS AND LAKELAND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
AT TPA, PIE, AND LAL DURING WEDNESDAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AT SRQ, PGD, FMY, AND RSW DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
WEST. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THURSDAY LOWERING THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 88 76 88 / 50 70 30 50
FMY 76 89 76 90 / 50 70 30 80
GIF 74 89 75 89 / 50 80 20 60
SRQ 74 88 75 88 / 50 70 40 60
BKV 72 87 71 87 / 40 70 20 40
SPG 75 87 76 86 / 50 70 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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