868
FXUS62 KTBW 110612
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
212 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
ALONG THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVING SOUTH. POCKETS
OF DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS, HOWEVER, THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SW FL TERMINALS.
UPDATE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE
GULF WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE FRONT AND MUCH DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NUDGING INTO N FL.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HEAVY PRECIP THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED
AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN ZONES ATTM THAT MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
NEXT VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF TO MOVE OVER
SE GULF AND SW FL WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP DAY THURSDAY. LATEST GRIDS
AND FORECAST ON TRACK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 90 74 / 30 20 20 0
FMY 89 75 88 73 / 80 40 60 20
GIF 90 74 89 72 / 40 20 30 0
SRQ 89 74 88 72 / 50 30 30 10
BKV 89 69 90 69 / 20 10 20 0
SPG 87 75 87 74 / 40 20 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...DAVIS/DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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