404
FXUS62 KTBW 111137
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS ACROSS SW FL. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THERE, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN OVER THE NATURE COAST. CLOUD
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHIFTING
ALONG WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH WEAK LOW OUT OF THE
AREA AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM (SAT-WED)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKING ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. PARADISE WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ALONG THE NATURE COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS TROUGHINESS TO THE EAST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK AND
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT RSW. THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM E-W ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO THIS,
HAVE VCTS AND VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES EXCEPT KTPA AND KPIE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND KEPT KTPA AND KPIE DRY FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE SUPPORTING
WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH CAUSING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL
STAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING AMPLE
MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTH OF
THERE, POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN, A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 90 74 / 30 20 20 0
FMY 89 75 88 73 / 80 40 60 20
GIF 90 74 89 72 / 40 20 30 0
SRQ 89 74 88 72 / 50 30 30 10
BKV 89 69 90 69 / 20 10 20 0
SPG 87 75 87 74 / 40 20 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW
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