661
FXUS62 KTBW 120615
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS. THERE WOULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY AS FRONT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASES, ESPECIALLY
FOR PGD/FMY/RSW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS SWFL AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER LAND HAS BEGUN TO WIND DOWN AS OUTFLOW RACED OUT TO THE WEST,
UNDERCUTTING THE INSTABILITY AS THE COLD POOL SPREADS OUT. NEW, BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST; BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN.
OUTSIDE OF SWFL, RADAR IS PICKING UP ON A FEW MID-LEVEL SPRINKLES
FALLING OUT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH
INDICATION THIS IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. EARLY 0Z SOUNDING DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY LAYER BELOW 850MB OR SO,
SUGGESTING MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE PRECIP FALLING OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY EVAPORATING ON THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS,
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 0
FMY 88 72 89 72 / 70 40 40 10
GIF 88 72 89 71 / 40 10 30 0
SRQ 87 72 89 71 / 40 30 30 10
BKV 89 68 89 67 / 20 10 30 0
SPG 86 74 87 73 / 30 20 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FLANNERY/DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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