118
FXUS62 KTBW 120859
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
459 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD BE MAKING IT INLAND. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TODAY WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BRINGING PWS DOWN BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE TODAY, BUT SOME
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DECREASE STATEWIDE, BUT ONLY
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (SUN-THU)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
ON SUNDAY, MORNING LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S IN PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST. DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE. PARADISE WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK
FROM HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS TROUGHINESS TO THE EAST COAST
LATER NEXT WEEK AND POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS. THERE WOULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY AS FRONT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASES, ESPECIALLY
FOR PGD/FMY/RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF TO
AROUND 3 FEET OFFSHORE, AND 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE. THEN, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN, A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE, BUT RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 0
FMY 88 72 89 72 / 70 40 40 10
GIF 88 72 89 71 / 40 10 30 0
SRQ 87 72 89 71 / 40 30 30 10
BKV 89 68 89 67 / 20 10 30 0
SPG 86 74 87 73 / 30 20 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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