181
FXUS62 KTBW 130006
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS WCFL THIS EVENING, WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM ACROSS
SWFL, AND A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 845 PM FOR PARTS OF
THE SANIBEL, SAINT JAMES CITY AND PUNTA RASSA AREAS, THAT HAVE
RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY THIS EVENING. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH PW
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES SOUTHWARD WHILE AREAS
NORTHWARD ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 1.2-1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE A FEW
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-4 INTO THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. SETTING UP A NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM AROUND THE I-4
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE DRIER AIR ALSO MOVING FURTHER
SOUTH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ONLY BE ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SPREAD BACK NORTH WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH WE'LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 60S
FOR A FEW MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY VFR. ASIDE FROM LINGERING EARLY EVENING VCSH/RA TO OPEN
THE CYCLE, PRIMARY OVERNIGHT CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING/PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY IN
THE 06-15Z TIMEFRAME AS A PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT BISECTS THE
PENINSULA GENERALLY ALONG I-4, KEEPING THE TERMINALS IN A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SWFL. HAVE INCLUDED FEW-SCT015
GROUP TO ANNOTATE POTENTIAL, WITH LATER AMD TO BKN-OVC IF
NECESSARY AS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EVOLVES. OTHERWISE, ONLY
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, WITH PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR
TERMINALS FROM 20-24Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WITH SEAS UP
TO 3 FEET. OVER THE WEEKEND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE SOME DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 MPH CONTINUING TO BRING DRIER AIR FURTHER
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 90 73 89 / 20 20 10 30
FMY 73 88 72 89 / 40 50 40 30
GIF 72 90 71 89 / 20 20 10 30
SRQ 72 88 71 89 / 30 30 20 30
BKV 67 88 67 89 / 10 10 10 30
SPG 73 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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