824
FXUS62 KTBW 130619
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODE; GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWERING CEILINGS CLOSE TO SUNRISE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW A CHANGE CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND BECOME BREEZY
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR PIE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS WCFL THIS EVENING, WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM ACROSS
SWFL, AND A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 845 PM FOR PARTS OF
THE SANIBEL, SAINT JAMES CITY AND PUNTA RASSA AREAS, THAT HAVE
RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY THIS EVENING. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH PW
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES SOUTHWARD WHILE AREAS
NORTHWARD ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 1.2-1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE A FEW
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-4 INTO THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 73 89 72 / 20 10 20 0
FMY 89 71 89 73 / 40 20 30 10
GIF 89 70 89 71 / 30 10 30 0
SRQ 88 70 89 71 / 20 20 20 10
BKV 89 67 89 66 / 20 10 20 0
SPG 87 73 87 73 / 20 20 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...HURT/DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page