222
FXUS62 KTBW 140039
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
839 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING NATURE COAST AND WCFL COASTAL ZONES
AND ADJACENT WATERS, ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR
S/CENTRAL FL THAT MAY EXPAND INTO PARTS OF SWFL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS WCFL BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
THIS EVENING, WHILE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO WIND DOWN
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WEAK RIDGING IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH WITH THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. A TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE STATE ALOFT. DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 70S COASTAL AND
SOUTH.
DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
EACH DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, LOWS MID TO UPPER
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH, LOWER RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND AND SOUTH, AND N/NE WINDS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE STATE AS DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING 70-75 ACROSS THE AREA AND
HIGHS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
BRISK TO GUSTY N/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE
IMPACTS FOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LIGHT
N/NE FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SCEC IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN WINDS REMAIN MORE IN THE
10-15KT RANGE OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N/NE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW WITH DRIER AIR LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH RIDGING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT IT IS STILL MOIST
ENOUGH NEAR THE SURFACE TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT
OR GREATER AND ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INLAND AND
SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON. N/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE RETURNS THEREAFTER, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 10
FMY 71 89 72 91 / 20 30 10 30
GIF 70 89 70 90 / 10 40 0 20
SRQ 71 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 20
BKV 67 89 66 89 / 0 30 0 10
SPG 74 88 74 88 / 20 20 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT/TAPIA
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY/TAPIA
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