780
FXUS62 KTBW 140719
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OVERALL, THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE THEN
LOOKS TO CREEP BACK UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY OR BRIEFLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH A NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TURN NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES, BUT
COULD APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 72 90 74 / 30 10 10 0
FMY 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 20 10
GIF 89 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 0
SRQ 88 71 89 72 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0
SPG 87 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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