944
FXUS62 KTBW 141759
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA. A BIT OF DRIER AIR
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH A LITTLE
EXTRA MOISTURE CREEPING IN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
EXTRA SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-4. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER, DRY
AIR EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE NATURE COAST COULD EVEN HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF LOW
60S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S AND HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AROUND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NE/E WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS LATER IN THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE TO E THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT MORE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. AN
OVERNIGHT SURGE COULD APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TEMPORARILY.
OTHERWISE, MARINE CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DRY AIR LINGERS OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 90 74 90 / 20 10 0 10
FMY 72 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 0 20
SRQ 70 89 72 90 / 20 10 10 20
BKV 65 89 66 90 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 73 88 75 88 / 20 10 0 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page