829
FXUS62 KTBW 142338
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
738 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLLISION
BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING. EARLY 0Z
DATA SHOWS THAT THE DECENT MOISTURE IS REALLY ONLY PRESENT IN THE
LOWEST 3KM. ABOVE THAT, THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY. THUS,
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING HAVE BEEN DOING SO IN THE REGION WHERE
MOISTURE POOLING AT THE SURFACE IS BEING FORCED UP HIGHER DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLLISIONS. AS WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MEET
OVER SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH, E MANATEE, AND E SARASOTA COUNTIES, A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM. OTHERWISE, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD MEAN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THE LINGERING STORMS SHOULD KEEP DRIFTING EAST IN THE BACKGROUND
FLOW, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE LINGERING ONES MAKING IT OFFSHORE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE FORECAST WAS TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO SHOW THESE
ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR
MOST, IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE, QUIET EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BETWEEN TPA AND LAL, AND A
FEW MORE COULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST BETWEEN SRQ AND PGD OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL, THOUGH, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH QUIET, VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY, DRIER AIR IS FAVORED TO KEEP THIS
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE ACROSS SWFL FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TOMORROW
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA. A BIT OF DRIER AIR
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH A LITTLE
EXTRA MOISTURE CREEPING IN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
EXTRA SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-4. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER, DRY
AIR EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE NATURE COAST COULD EVEN HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF LOW
60S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S AND HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AROUND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE TO E THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT MORE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. AN
OVERNIGHT SURGE COULD APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TEMPORARILY.
OTHERWISE, MARINE CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DRY AIR LINGERS OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 90 74 90 / 30 10 0 10
FMY 72 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 0 20
SRQ 70 89 72 90 / 30 10 10 20
BKV 65 89 66 90 / 20 0 0 10
SPG 73 88 75 88 / 30 10 0 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PEARCE
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