938
FXUS62 KTBW 150722
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A CUTOFF LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE THE GA/SC COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A
SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETUP WILL
KEEP A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. THESE FEATURES WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF. THIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, AS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED BACK NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SITES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH A NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TURN NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH WINDS COULD NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION EACH EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 74 91 75 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 50 20
GIF 91 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
SRQ 90 72 91 73 / 10 0 20 20
BKV 89 66 90 68 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 87 74 89 75 / 0 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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