887
FXUS62 KTBW 151813
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
213 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE AREA GIVING US QUIET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DOWN IN SW FLORIDA TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
MOST OF US WILL BE STAYING DRY TODAY.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A DIVIDE BETWEEN
MORE MOIST AIR, RAIN SHOWERS, AND SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH. WHILE THE THE NORTHERN AREA OF OUR CWA HAS DRIER AIR, LESS
RAIN, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THIS DIVIDE IS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE NATURE COAST HAS POPS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
PERCENT WHILE SW FLORIDA ARE SITTING AT 60 TO 70 PERCENT.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN TO THE THE
NATURE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
OCCURRING ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUR WEEK WITH DRIER
AIR IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS. FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS HIGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS STARTING TUESDAY
AND LASTING FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-4 THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE CLOSE TO
ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 74 89 75 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 91 73 90 74 / 20 10 40 30
GIF 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 0
SRQ 89 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 20
BKV 89 67 90 68 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 87 75 89 75 / 0 0 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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