861
FXUS62 KTBW 161221
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THESE FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT
REMAINING OVER THAT REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHEN IT FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO
FLORIDA, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGES OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP A PREDOMINANT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 - 1.5 INCHES.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4 - 1.8 INCHES, WHERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (20-40 PERCENT) CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE NATURE COAST
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT EXPECTED.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
EQUATE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40-70 PERCENT. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST AND A 40-70 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AN INVERTED TROUGH SITS NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGH THE WEEK,
THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 818 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE STAYING DRY TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS STAYING IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDED VCTS FOR FMY AND RSW
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY FROM
TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EVEN WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, RH VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 75 90 75 / 10 10 30 20
FMY 91 74 88 74 / 30 20 70 40
GIF 91 73 90 73 / 20 10 30 20
SRQ 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 40 30
BKV 90 68 90 69 / 10 0 20 10
SPG 88 76 88 75 / 10 10 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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