190
FNUS72 KTBW 161646
FWSTBW
SPOT FORECAST FOR WEB 5/6 RX FIRE...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1246 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EVEN WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, RH VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 INCREASING TO 36 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN DECREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON
SKY (%).........53 69 68 63
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 40
TEMP............79 83 84 84
RH..............78 69 66 68
20 FT WIND......E 8 E 7 E 8 N 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 12
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 3100 3700 2600
TRANSPORT WIND..E 12 E 9 E 7 NE 8
DISPERSION IDX..26 37 36 27
LVORI...........3 3 2 3
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 5
TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 DECREASING TO 5 AFTER 3 AM.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT
SKY (%).........60 60 52 44 38 40
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............83 80 78 77 76 75
RH..............71 77 82 84 87 90
20 FT WIND......N 8 E 8 E 8 E 9 E 8 E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 9 9
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 500 700 700 700 700
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9 E 8 E 9 E 9 E 10 SE 8
DISPERSION IDX..15 7 7 7 6 4
LVORI...........3 4 5 5 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
8 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 33 IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
23 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON
SKY (%).........41 42 37 37 41 43
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 30 30
TEMP............74 74 79 84 85 86
RH..............92 90 80 70 66 65
20 FT WIND......E 7 E 7 E 8 NE 8 NE 9 NE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 10 12 13 14
MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 1700 2500 3300 2200
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 E 7 E 8 E 8 NE 8 NE 9
DISPERSION IDX..4 8 18 29 36 29
LVORI...........7 6 3 3 2 3
FORECASTER...RDAVIS
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL FAUSTINI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522039.0/TBW
.DELDT 09/16/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MICHAEL.FAUSTINI@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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