787
FXUS62 KTBW 171202
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
802 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT REMAINING
OVER THAT REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN IT FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO FLORIDA, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGES OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP A
PREDOMINANT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 17/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS ALREADY SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF 1.66 INCHES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WITH A PWAT AROUND
1.5 INCHES OVER THE NATURE COAST, WHICH MAY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER
THAT AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.6 - 2.0 INCHES, WHICH WILL EQUATE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
OVER THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, AN INVERTED TROUGH SITS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOTCH OF DRIER AIR OVER FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 - 1.6
INCHES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. BY SUNDAY, THE
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 1.6 - 2.0 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID TO
UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN IN THE LOW TO MID
70'S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY TO FMY AND RSW. FOR THE
OTHER TERMINALS THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEADING TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW
15 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 90 75 / 50 30 30 10
FMY 87 73 90 73 / 60 40 70 20
GIF 89 73 91 73 / 60 30 40 10
SRQ 87 72 90 73 / 50 30 40 20
BKV 89 68 91 68 / 40 20 30 10
SPG 86 74 88 75 / 50 30 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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