959
FXUS62 KTBW 171818
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS HELPING TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR EVERYONE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY
BY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTER IN. THIS MEANS ONCE AGAIN
MOST OF US WILL BE STAYING DRY EXCEPT FOR SW FLORIDA WHERE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING
WITH PWS BACK NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE AREA
TODAY. ALREADY SEEING STORMS NEAR A FEW TERMINALS. THESE STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK YOU CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SOME DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WE WILL SEE SLIGHT LOWER RAIN
SHOWERS CHANCES AFTER TODAY BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 90 75 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 86 74 90 74 / 60 30 60 20
GIF 89 72 91 73 / 60 30 40 10
SRQ 88 73 90 73 / 50 30 30 20
BKV 89 69 91 69 / 40 20 20 10
SPG 86 75 89 75 / 50 30 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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