320
FXUS62 KTBW 180013
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, THE 0Z SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS THAT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS. THUS,
SOME COASTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES - AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS YET AROUND TAMPA BAY AND ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. WITH THESE CELLS CONSIDERABLY MORE SHALLOW AS THE
INSTABILITY WANES, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
THE DEEPEST CORES JUST OFF THE NATURE COAST ARE ONLY AROUND 25KFT
TALL, WITH CELLS IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA CLOSER TO 15KFT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES CONDITIONS WELL. AS SUCH, NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS HELPING TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR EVERYONE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY
BY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTER IN. THIS MEANS ONCE AGAIN
MOST OF US WILL BE STAYING DRY EXCEPT FOR SW FLORIDA WHERE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING
WITH PWS BACK NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS SWFL WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGHEST. AS SOME DRIER AIR AGAIN TRIES TO SETTLE IN THE BAY AREA,
THIS FAVORS MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND TAMPA BAY. CONTINUED
DRYING IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE WEEK, FURTHER REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO
GENERALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SOME DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WE WILL SEE SLIGHT LOWER RAIN
SHOWERS CHANCES AFTER TODAY BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 90 75 92 / 20 30 10 20
FMY 74 90 74 91 / 30 60 20 50
GIF 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 10 30
SRQ 73 90 73 90 / 30 30 20 30
BKV 69 91 69 92 / 20 20 10 20
SPG 75 89 75 89 / 30 30 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
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