035
FXUS62 KTBW 180357
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1157 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SHARP CONTRAST
BETWEEN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND RELATIVELY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL SET-UP ANOTHER
DAY OF RELATIVELY HIGH POPS WITH THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING HEADING NORTH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST.
ON FRIDAY, THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH AS THE POOL
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY CHANCE
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF SARASOTA. THE DRIER AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EACH DAY.
ON MONDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK OVER THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CIGS 250 EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE SCT LCL BKN 025-035
THURSDAY MORNING...LIFTING TO VFR CIGS 035-040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE VCNTY PGD/FMY/RSW WITH LCL
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
PREDOMINATELY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY/NIGHT WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 90 75 / 50 30 30 10
FMY 86 74 88 73 / 60 40 60 30
GIF 89 70 90 73 / 60 40 40 10
SRQ 88 72 88 73 / 50 30 40 20
BKV 89 68 90 68 / 40 20 30 10
SPG 86 74 87 75 / 50 30 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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