509
FNUS72 KTBW 181050
FWSTBW
SPOT FORECAST FOR PRAIRIE SHELL CREEK RX...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
650 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS WILL BE RETURNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT A 50% CHANCE
OVER THE BURN SITE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP DISPERSION LOW WITH IT
TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW 30'S IN THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 31.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (EDT) 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM
SKY (%).........59 57 56 62 67 71
WEATHER COV.....S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 50 50
TEMP............72 74 80 84 86 84
RH..............99 98 85 77 73 74
20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 NE 7 NE 7 NE 9 E 10
20 FT WIND GUST.9 10 10 12 13 14
MIX HGT (FT)....400 900 2000 3100 3400 2900
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7 E 8 E 9 E 7 E 9 E 10
DISPERSION IDX..5 12 24 31 33 29
LVORI...........8 6 3 3 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT
SKY (%).........70 59 52 38 30 26
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 10 0 10 10
TEMP............83 78 76 74 73 73
RH..............76 88 94 95 99 98
20 FT WIND......E 9 NE 7 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 12 12 9 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2400 800 700 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 E 9 E 9 E 8 NE 7 NE 7
DISPERSION IDX..22 6 4 4 3 3
LVORI...........3 5 6 6 9 9
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 48.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON
SKY (%).........33 34 30 27 31 36
WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 30 30
TEMP............72 73 79 85 87 87
RH..............98 99 86 75 69 68
20 FT WIND......N 6 N 7 NE 8 NE 9 NE 10 NE 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 13 13 14 16
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 2100 3500 4500 4200
TRANSPORT WIND..N 7 N 8 NE 10 N 10 NE 10 N 12
DISPERSION IDX..3 8 29 45 49 49
LVORI...........9 8 4 3 1 1
FORECASTER...SHIVELEY
REQUESTED BY...CODY PHILLIPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522135.0/TBW
.DELDT 09/18/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CODY.PHILLIPS@SWFWMD.STATE.FL.US
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