531
FXUS62 KTBW 220448
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1248 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
- TROPICAL STORM MELISSA HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT THIS TIME, BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST.
- PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
- BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK. MARINERS
SHOULD EXPECT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
DEVELOP AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST, AND THE 60S ELSEWHERE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO VEER TO
THE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE L/L MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WITH DEW POINTS RISING GENERALLY INTO THE 60S. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RECOVERY. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE AS
COOL...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR, AS A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE THE EASTERN PENINSULA OFF THE ATLANTIC
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS
THE SHOWERS PUSH INLAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SCT LCL BKN 035-040 WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IMPACTING LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CLIMBING TO CAUTIONARY AND
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 67 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 89 70 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 89 66 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 86 67 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 84 69 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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