528
FXUS62 KTBW 221425
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS SEEN IN 12Z TBW
SOUNDING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EARLIER THAT HAVE
BURNED OFF AND MIXED OUT. THE DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER N
FL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SWARD OVER THE C FL
PENINSULA TODAY THEN S FL TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VRF CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT SCT
AFTERNOON CLOUDS CUMULUS AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
DEVELOP AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST, AND THE 60S ELSEWHERE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO VEER TO
THE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE L/L MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WITH DEW POINTS RISING GENERALLY INTO THE 60S. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RECOVERY. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE AS
COOL...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR, AS A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE THE EASTERN PENINSULA OFF THE ATLANTIC
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS
THE SHOWERS PUSH INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CLIMBING TO CAUTIONARY AND
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 67 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 89 70 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 89 66 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 86 67 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 84 69 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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