405
FXUS62 KTBW 230012
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
812 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
- HIGH CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA CONTINUES GRADUALLY TRUDGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN IN ITS WAKE,
EVIDENCED BY RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF TPA INDICATING PWATS
DOWN TO AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES, WHILE SWFL AREAS REMAIN A BIT
MOISTER PER SIMILAR SOUNDINGS FROM RSW CHECKING IN AROUND 1.2-1.4
INCHES. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS LEADING TO FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER NE FLOW, BECOMING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH AXIS
DOWN THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE N CARIB THAT IS PUSHING DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE C FL PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN S FL LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY TO
PREVENT PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TDS IN THE LOWER
40S IN N FL TONIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE
COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FRI THRU THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC WHILE SEVERAL FEATURES
PRODUCE MUCH LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIB TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE FOR GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
DRY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NW WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY VEERING TO N/NE BY LATE EVENING, AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND 5-10 KNOTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD. LOW
CHANCES OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/CIGS ADVERTISED LATE TONIGHT FROM
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE, HOWEVER DECREASING MOISTURE AND GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD REMAINING MAINLY EAST OF TERMINALS FAVOR NO MENTION
THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CLIMBING TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HUMIDITY SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE
WEEKEND ON GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE W ATLANTIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 70 89 68 87 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 66 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 67 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 59 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 70 84 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE/PEARCE
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