723
FXUS62 KTBW 231424
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1024 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
UPDATE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE S FL PENINSULA WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE
FRONT PRODUCED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLIER THAT HAS MOSTLY
BURNED OFF AND MIXED OUT. FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOSTLY MIXED OUT AND
BURNED OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT 030-040K FT CLOUDS AND MAINLY EASTERLY
WINDS EXCEPT AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN C AND N AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH DOWN THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE COMBINATION TONIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DRIER AIR, AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, LOWER TO MID
60S CENTRAL...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH
DUE TO THE DRIER NOT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO VEER TO
THE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE L/L MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WITH DEW POINTS RISING GENERALLY INTO THE 60S. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO NOT ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE AS COOL...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, AS A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC IN THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CLIMBING TO CAUTIONARY AND
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY AND RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 86 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 65 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 85 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 84 67 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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