163
FXUS62 KTBW 231747
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
147 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NW ATLANTIC FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AS TS MELISSA STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND E GULF TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONALY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS TEMPS
SHOULD BE PLEASANT TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND MAINLY ONLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND OVER INTERIOR AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS BRING A SOLID BUT DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MID-NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NE-E WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
IN THE CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E
GULF. NE-E WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20+KTS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
TO ROUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT MARINERS, SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BUT
THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BECOMING HAZARDOUS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. HUMIDITY SLOWLY INCREASES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MID WEEK COLD
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 69 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 55 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 68 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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