371
FXUS62 KTBW 232337
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SWATH OF
DRY AIR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH RATHER BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
APART FROM THE WINDS, THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
IN THE CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E
GULF. NE-E WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20+KTS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
TO ROUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT MARINERS, SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BUT
THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BECOMING HAZARDOUS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. HUMIDITY SLOWLY INCREASES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MID WEEK COLD
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 69 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 55 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 68 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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