608
FXUS62 KTBW 241234
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
834 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL AID IN L/L MOISTURE RECOVERY/INCREASING DEW
POINTS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST, AND IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTERIOR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A DEEP U/L TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY
BE IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. GUST WILL GET UP TO 25 KNOTS. BESIDES
THAT WE WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER TODAY, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 40S WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 67 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 86 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 86 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 70 84 72 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page