523
FXUS62 KTBW 241842
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY WE HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY
WITH MOST OF US IN THE MID 80'S BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. AS WE GO
THROUGHOUT OUR WEEKEND TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY TICK UP
WITH LOWS BACK AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY.
AS WE GO THROUGH OUT WORK WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TWO COLD
FRONTS COMING THROUGH. THE FIRST WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
BRINGING US A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
AROUND A 20 POP. THIS FRONT WILL FEEL SIMILIAR TO THE LAST COUPLE
WE HAVE HAD BRINGING LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 60'S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 80'S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THIS ONE WON'T BRING ANY RAIN WITH IT BUT WILL GIVE US OUR FIRST
BIG COOL DOWN OF THE SEASON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO GET GUSTY WITH THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BESIDES THAT WE
WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A STALLED OUT FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CAUSE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25. BY MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
WILL ALSO HELP TO LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. RHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50
PERCENT AT THE SAME TIME SO NO RED FLAG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND RH WILL RISE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 86 66 86 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 86 68 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 85 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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