236
FXUS62 KTBW 242352
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
752 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES NEXT THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
EARLY EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY HAS
BEEN THE GUSTY WINDS AS THE STATE IS POSITIONED BETWEEN SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WELL TO THE SOUTH.
ASOS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS FROM TODAY HAVE REPORTED PEAK WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA OF BETWEEN 20 AND 36 MPH, BUT THESE WINDS
ARE NOW STARTING TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WINDS FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP
AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A STALLED OUT FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CAUSE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25. BY MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
WILL ALSO HELP TO LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. RHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50
PERCENT AT THE SAME TIME SO NO RED FLAG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND RH WILL RISE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 88 71 89 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 70 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 66 86 70 87 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 68 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 60 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 70 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
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