742
FXUS62 KTBW 251227
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TODAY AND SUNDAY, BUT BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY SUBSIDING AWAY FROM THE COAST AT NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A DEEP U/L TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER
IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 70 NORTH...AND THE LOWER TO MID
70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 826 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUST UP TO
25K KNOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 30 KNOTS IN SW FLORIDA.
BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WE WILL HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED, WHICH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 88 73 90 72 / 0 0 20 10
GIF 86 70 87 71 / 0 0 20 10
SRQ 88 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 86 64 87 67 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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