211
FXUS62 KTBW 251742
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
142 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
CURRENTLY WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
A STALL OUT FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS
ARE HELPING TO KEEP OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ALLOWING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS HELPS TO INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. UNFORTUNATELY THE WEST
COAST, WHICH REALLY NEEDS THE RAIN, LOOKS TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CHANCE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WON'T BRING ANY RAIN BUT
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S WITH OUR FIRST MORNING
OF WIDESPREAD 50'S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUST UP TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WE
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A STALLED
OUT FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IS CAUSING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN THE GULF
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND START TO RELAX AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, RHS WILL BE ON THE
RISE SO NO RED FLAG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RH STAYING IN
THE 50'S AND 60'S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 71 89 73 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 87 73 89 73 / 0 0 20 10
GIF 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 30 20
SRQ 87 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 86 64 86 67 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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