912
FXUS62 KTBW 260442
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1242 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY EAST WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR, AS
SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR PENINSULA.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN U/L TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MID WEEK, A MUCH STRONGER DEEPER U/L TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAY ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST (AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY
COOLER THAN THAT), WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST
ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT LCL BKN
CIGS 040-050 WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SCA AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MID WEEK WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 73 87 71 / 10 20 30 10
FMY 89 73 89 71 / 20 10 30 10
GIF 86 71 87 69 / 30 20 50 10
SRQ 89 71 87 70 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 86 67 86 63 / 10 20 40 10
SPG 85 72 84 71 / 10 20 20 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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