548
FXUS62 KTBW 261843
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
243 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW
- COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA IS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR INLAND LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE
STAYING INLAND.
BY MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS HELPS TO INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. UNFORTUNATELY THE WEST
COAST, WHICH REALLY NEEDS THE RAIN, LOOKS TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CHANCE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WON'T BRING ANY RAIN BUT
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S WITH OUR FIRST MORNING
OF WIDESPREAD 50'S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BUT
REMAIN TO LOW TO ADD INTO FORECAST EXCEPT FOR FMY, RSW AND LAL.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY COMING DOWN TODAY BUT WINDS WILL
STAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO SCEC
CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE
SEEING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 73 87 71 / 20 10 40 10
FMY 89 73 88 72 / 40 20 40 10
GIF 86 72 87 69 / 40 10 60 10
SRQ 89 72 86 70 / 20 20 30 10
BKV 86 67 85 64 / 20 10 50 10
SPG 85 73 83 72 / 20 10 40 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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