321
FXUS62 KTBW 270020
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
820 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
IT HAS BEEN A SUMMER-LIKE DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN OVER THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR WITH PARTS OF POLK AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BASED ON LATEST RADAR
ESTIMATES. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
THEN MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS
TOPPED OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 80'S TO LOW 90'S WITH
SARASOTA BREAKING A HIGH RECORD AT 91 DEGREES. MADE SOME SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 10Z, THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AROUND 21-00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS ABATING TO
1-3 FEET. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 87 71 84 / 10 40 10 0
FMY 73 88 72 87 / 20 40 10 0
GIF 72 87 69 85 / 10 60 10 0
SRQ 72 86 70 84 / 20 30 10 0
BKV 67 85 64 82 / 10 50 10 0
SPG 73 83 72 81 / 10 40 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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