377
FXUS62 KTBW 270715
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOWER LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER BRINGING THE MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER INLAND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH LOWER WHILE THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SEE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MID-APRIL FOR THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MORE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING, SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH,
THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING MIDWEEK USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 71 84 64 / 40 10 0 0
FMY 88 72 87 66 / 50 20 0 0
GIF 87 69 85 62 / 60 20 0 0
SRQ 86 71 83 64 / 30 10 0 0
BKV 85 64 81 56 / 50 10 0 0
SPG 84 72 80 65 / 30 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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