782
FXUS62 KTBW 271212
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
812 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT
THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AROMAS OVER THE AREA, THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AS THE SUN ERODES THE TOP OF THE LAYER WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
HEATING THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND HUMID.
A DISORGANIZED, BUT POTENT MCS IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL FAVOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE TIMING SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE FL WEST COAST WILL
PROBABLY ONCE AGAIN STAY DRY. GIVEN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ARRIVAL, A SEA BREEZE IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. WHILE SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, A
MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS
ARRIVE. ADDITIONALLY, THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT
APPROACHING CONVECTION WILL BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST, FURTHER UNDERCUTTING INSTABILITY AND LOWERING CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST.
THE FARTHER INLAND ONE GOES, THE LESS THIS WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE.
THUS, THE INTERIOR - BUT ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA - ARE FAVORED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN, BUT GENERALLY WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN THE EAST COAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT, BLOWING LOOSE OR
UNSECURED OBJECTS.
OVERALL, THIS SETUP IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD BEGIN ERODING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE SUN RISES. AFTER A FEW QUIET HOURS
FROM MID- MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL WEST COAST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SEA BREEZE ALSO FORMS, WITH A FEW STORMS
LIKELY TO POP UP ALONG IT. THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD JUMP OVER WEST COAST TERMINALS AND
REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND DUE TO MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THUS, CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF MOST TERMINALS IS FAVORED TO BE SHOWERS RATHER THAN
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA, LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOWER LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER BRINGING THE MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER INLAND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH LOWER WHILE THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SEE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MID-APRIL FOR THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH,
THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING MIDWEEK USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 71 84 64 / 40 10 0 0
FMY 88 72 87 66 / 50 20 0 0
GIF 87 69 85 62 / 60 20 0 0
SRQ 86 71 83 64 / 30 10 0 0
BKV 85 64 81 56 / 50 10 0 0
SPG 84 72 80 65 / 30 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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