403
FXUS62 KTBW 280052
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
852 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
- PATCHES OF FOG ARE FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING. SLOW DOWN, USE
LOW BEAMS, AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES MID-WEEK. THE COLDEST WEATHER SINCE
MARCH/APRIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS LINGERING IN SWFL AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS INSTABILITY FADES AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN ALOFT. THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT IN LOW
LEVELS SO LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF FOG REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST. IN FACT, LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA SHOW A STOUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AS LOWS FALL TO THE 60S FOR INTERIOR AREAS AND
LOW 70S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA TO THE SOUTH, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS HIGHLY DYNAMIC TODAY WITH SO
MANY LARGE-SCALE FEATURES IN THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
MELISSA POSES NO THREAT TO OUR REGION, AND CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP
TO BE QUITE NICE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FOR NOW, THOUGH, AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IS
USHERING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS IS RUNNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF TO ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH THE NATURE COAST SEEING STORMS IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS, AND AREAS FARTHER SOUTH SEEING THEM LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY JUMPING OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
IN THIS AREA, THE SEA BREEZE IS JUST STARTING TO BECOME EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND, A FEW
EARLY STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT, BUT THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
FAVOR STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOOKS TO BE COUPLED WITH OUTFLOW
SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, UNDERCUTTING INSTABILITY
AS CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE. AS SUCH, THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS RETAIN THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE
COAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRIER.
MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH; AND IN FACT, THE PARENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO BE ABSORBED BY A RETROGRADING LOW IN THE NE. AS SUCH, THERE IS
NOT A DRAMATIC CHANGE COMING BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY, AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SOME.
HOWEVER, THIS WON'T HAPPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
AS THE RETROGRADING LOW ERODES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS PROPAGATING WEST TO EAST WILL BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS WEAKNESS TO INTENSIFY AND DIG WELL
INTO THE SE AND EVEN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS DIGGING LOW WILL PULL A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK. IN RESPONSE, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MARCH OR APRIL.
DESPITE BEING A STRONG SYSTEM, TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE ONE
ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT LESS THAN 20%
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
A WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MELISSA AND A COLD, CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS OVER FLORIDA
MEANS THAT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, PARTICULARLY
OVER COASTAL WATERS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY, AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
AS MELISSA MOVES OFF TO THE NE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FARTHER EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED, EVENTUALLY WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME GRADUAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO SLOW THIS PROCESS. SO OVERALL,
THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE DAYS LEFT OF WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE A NICE COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION JUST IN TIME TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO SWFL
TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF BY LATE
EVENING AS DRIER AIR BUILD IN. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT INTERIOR TERMINALS SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE COULD OCCUR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY
FOG AND/OR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY AROUND 14Z TUESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FAVORING A
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER THAT LASTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHES TO AREAS
OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN TOMORROW - BUT
THE MORE POTENT FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COLDER, DRIER, AND
BREEZIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 83 63 81 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 72 87 65 82 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 69 85 62 83 / 10 0 0 10
SRQ 71 83 63 80 / 10 0 0 20
BKV 64 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 20
SPG 72 80 65 78 / 0 0 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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