203
FXUS62 KTBW 280700
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK
- A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO BRINGING SOME LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TODAY. THEN DURING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. BEHIND THIS FRONT, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MID-APRIL FOR THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY/TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY,
AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFT BACK TO NORTHEAST AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT COULD HAVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A MUCH COLDER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 63 81 66 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 87 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 84 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 83 63 80 66 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 80 56 80 56 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 80 65 78 66 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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