344
FXUS62 KTBW 281143
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
743 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. USE
CAUTION ON THE ROADS.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK
- A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG MIXED IN IS MOVING SOUTH, WITH THE
LEADING EDGE NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF TAMPA BAY. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, THIS SHOULD KEEP SPREADING SOUTH.
HOWEVER, INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THE CLOUDS AND
BEGIN TO MIX THEM OUT. FOR SWFL, IT'S LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
NATURE COAST, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND THE TAMPA BAY AREA ARE LIKELY
LOOKING AT A FAIRLY CLOUDY MORNING.
BY THE AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING SUNNIER AND THE REST
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE
TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A BANK OF LOW CIGS/BR IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY OF TAMPA BAY
AREA TERMINALS NOW, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. A BRIEF COUPLE-HOUR WINDOW FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS TO LIFT THE CIGS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR. FOR SWFL
TERMINALS, IT IS LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THE LOW
CLOUD DECK KEEPS MOVING SOUTH. NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD AGAIN SEE A
WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING, AND EVERYONE WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED WINDOW FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEREAFTER, QUIETER WEATHER LASTS INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO BRINGING SOME LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TODAY. THEN DURING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. BEHIND THIS FRONT, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MID-APRIL FOR THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY/TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY,
AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT COULD HAVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A MUCH COLDER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 63 81 66 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 87 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 84 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 83 63 80 66 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 80 56 80 56 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 80 65 78 66 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
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