698
FXUS62 KTBW 281750
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. USE CAUTION ON
THE ROADS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING. THE COLDEST
WEATHER SINCE MARCH/APRIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS
A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
- A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE ARE FORECAST, WITH BAY AND INLAND
WATERWAYS REMAINING CHOPPY TO ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT DURING THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH SWFL THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER WAY, A
SLIGHTLY MORE MILD NORTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. THESE GRADUALLY ERODE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FOR
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS REALLY NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLAY.
HOWEVER, THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TOMORROW EVENING,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER.
AS A RETROGRADING LOW WEAKENS A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, A
TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THE COLDEST AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION SINCE THE LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL TIME-FRAME. WITH MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA PASSING TO THE EAST
OF FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE STATE, LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS COULD BLOW UNSECURED OBJECTS, THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS.
OVER LAND, THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OF COURSE BE THE
TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO FILTER IN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PULL
IN AND MIX ANY RESIDUAL WARMER AIR ALOFT TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AS
WINDS SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
40S TO MID 50S.
STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE FARTHER EAST, ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO THE EAST
AND EVENTUALLY SE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO ADVECT BACK IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE POTENTIAL SETUP FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY CLEAR: THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP. WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY PASSES
WITH LITTLE FANFARE OR LEADS TO A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER IS NOT
SUPER CLEAR YET. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS. FOR NOW AT LEAST, ONE CAN LOOK
FORWARD TO THE VERY NICE CHANGE IN WEATHER THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ERODED, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST, AND SNEAK INTO THE VICINITY OF TPA, PIE, AND KLAL.
HOWEVER, NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST
ANYTHING BELOW MVFR. FOR THE MOST PART, TOMORROW LOOKS QUIET.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT LATE TOMORROW WILL FAVOR A QUICK
PASSING LINE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FAVOR SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
BRING A QUICK-PASSING LINE OF SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
WINDS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE TO
AS MUCH AS 8 FEET OFFSHORE, WITH BAY AND INLAND WATERS BECOMING
CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE MOISTURE KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. A QUICK-PASSING LINE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD HIGHER DISPERSIONS AND LOWER RH VALUES. HOWEVER, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MET AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 81 64 75 / 0 10 20 0
FMY 67 83 67 79 / 0 0 20 0
GIF 62 83 59 76 / 0 0 20 0
SRQ 64 80 66 76 / 0 10 20 0
BKV 55 80 56 72 / 0 10 20 0
SPG 66 78 66 73 / 0 10 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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