103
FXUS62 KTBW 271141
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
641 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 15Z OR SO AND HAVE TRIED TO NOTE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS
WITHIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EACH SITE. VFR WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN
LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE
EAST COAST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO A
TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA, A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AS SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A 1037 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA, BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL HELP USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN THIS
COOLER AIR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 60'S AND 70'S FOR
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30'S ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40'S
TO LOW 50'S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S
FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A MORE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN SETS UP OVER
FLORIDA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES
SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST. THIS FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR.
DECREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NATURE COAST, BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
RAIN-FREE. SOME DRY AIR WITH LOW RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH, SO NO RED FLAG WARNING
SHOULD BE NEEDED. MOISTURE REBOUNDS BY SATURDAY WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 46 65 48 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 81 50 69 51 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 74 44 64 47 / 20 0 0 0
SRQ 76 49 66 49 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 72 36 63 38 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 73 50 64 53 / 10 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR TAMPA BAY
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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