077
FXUS62 KTBW 271806
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
106 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY LIFTED AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, AND ANY AREAS STILL SEEING LOW
CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT. THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY AS SOME CLOUDS LINGER
OVER THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO 40S AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS, THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY, THEN WE GET ONE MORE
COOLER MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE HIGHS WARM BACK UP NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WE ACTUALLY GET SOME RAIN CHANCES
BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THAT CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER (AND HIGHER) CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MOST SITES AFTER THIS MORNING'S LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT THERE IS A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AGAIN. VFR WILL RETURN BY
TONIGHT, IF NOT BEFORE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH WINDS WILL STAY NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NEAR THE SUSTAINED 15 MPH THRESHOLD
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE TOO BORDERLINE TO ISSUE
ONE AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE THEN INCREASES FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FURTHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 46 65 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 49 69 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 44 65 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 47 66 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 36 63 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 52 64 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
CARLISLE
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