009
FXUS62 KTBW 280716
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
216 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA. SOME RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED
FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY. INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING FRIGID NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT
A COLD AIRMASS INTO FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30'S ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND LOW 40'S
TO LOW 50'S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 60'S FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30'S ALONG
THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40'S TO MID 50'S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A MORE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN SETS UP OVER
FLORIDA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES
SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA AND WILL BRING A FURTHER SHIFT IN WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY LATE MONDAY EVENING, MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY PRODUCING THE NEXT MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST. THIS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SOME RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN CLEARING BECOMING SKC MID-LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8-12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z, BUT
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HAS WARRANTED THE
CONTINUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DECREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. SOME DRY AIR WITH LOW RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT TODAY, BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH, SO NO RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
NEEDED. MOISTURE REBOUNDS BY SATURDAY WITH NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 49 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 70 53 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 65 49 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 66 50 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 63 40 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 54 75 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...WYNN
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