421
FXUS62 KTBW 281745
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
AS A TROUGH LIFTS OFF THE NE COAST, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FLATTENING OUT INTO A MOSTLY ZONAL SETUP. IN RESPONSE, STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE CONUS.
THE CENTER OF THIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF UP TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH FLORIDA JUST EAST OF THE CENTER, A NE FLOW
IS DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
(ABOUT 8MB FROM MIA TO JAX), WHICH HAS FAVORS THIS NE FLOW TO REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX SOMEWHAT, ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. UNTIL THAT
HAPPENS, HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR MEANS THAT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WITH SOME RAIN YESTERDAY, THE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW; AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF
A MISMATCH BETWEEN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND
WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE THIS AFTERNOON. SO IT IS STILL NOT
QUITE THE RIGHT SETUP FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. RATHER, THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACT IS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. GUSTY WINDS FAVOR
CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS INTO TOMORROW.
THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER TOPIC FOR TODAY IS THE CHILLY WEATHER.
HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALREADY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT,
IT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY.
WHILE MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN, THE PATTERN DOESN'T
REMAIN ZONAL FOR VERY LONG. BEGINNING TOMORROW, ANOTHER TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST AND SUPPRESS IT'S INFLUENCE, LEADING TO A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND THUS ADDITIONAL WARMING.
BY SUNDAY, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. FOG WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM, A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO
THE SE, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE OF WEATHER TO THE REGION TO END
NEXT WEEK. NOT UNLIKE TODAY, COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER WEATHER
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH MORE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS SWFL, WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED, FAVORING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL, THE SETUP IS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ENJOY THE QUIETER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AT TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE WINDOWS
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SOME SHRA/TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET.
AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS WELL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
DESPITE BEING A DRY AND BREEZY DAY WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
20S AND 30S, THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN
SOME RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
YESTERDAY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE THE DRIEST AIR IS PRESENT,
WINDS ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE RAPID FIRE SPREAD. WHILE
BORDERLINE AND SOME SPOTS MAY INSTANTANEOUS HIT CRITERIA,
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE MET THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW,
RH VALUES QUICKLY REBOUND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 50 77 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 54 80 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 50 76 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 51 78 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 41 76 53 83 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 55 76 65 81 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
FLANNERY
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