410
FXUS62 KTBW 290721
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE COLD MORNING BEFORE A WARM UP SETS UP OVER
FLORIDA. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30'S ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40'S TO MID 50'S FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LATER TODAY, A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN SETS UP OVER
FLORIDA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES
SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF PRODUCING CONTINUED
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
FURTHER SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST DIRECTION
AND WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70'S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN NEAR AVERAGE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
LATE MONDAY EVENING, MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY PRODUCING
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST. THIS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS EXPECTED, WHICH HAS WARRANTED THE CONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. DECREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10-
15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, BUT WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE REBOUNDS STARTING TODAY WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 80 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 75 60 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 79 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 76 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 76 64 81 67 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...WYNN
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