346
FXUS62 KTBW 291819
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
CURRENTLY, WARM, BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING THE HIGHS
BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE 50S AND 60S. A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE
NATURE COAST AND NORTH OF I4. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH GUSTY, NE WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW HOWEVER WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RH VALUES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 83 65 83 / 0 10 10 10
FMY 63 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 59 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 53 83 58 82 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 65 81 67 81 / 0 10 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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