086
FXUS62 KTBW 300730
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT EAST OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY, BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND MODERATING TREND WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, BUT A
STRONGER DEEPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES DURING
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT BRINGING SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH LEADING TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND IT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING MIDWEEK WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN SOME COOLER DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS THOSE THAT
WE HAD BEHIND THE LAST FRONT DURING THE END OF LAST WEEK. BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WINDS WILL VEER TO THE TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND WE COULD THEREFORE SEE A FEW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
4 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND IT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 65 84 69 / 0 10 10 20
FMY 85 66 85 68 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 83 63 83 66 / 0 10 10 10
SRQ 84 64 84 68 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 83 58 83 63 / 0 10 10 20
SPG 81 67 81 70 / 0 10 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...HURT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page