496
FXUS62 KTBW 010015
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
WITH THE SUN NOW SET, THE WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DROP. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST, MAKING THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
A BIT TRICKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO DECLINE. WITH A
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND, THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT MICROSCALE SUBTLETIES COULD DISRUPT
DEVELOPMENT.
ULTIMATELY, THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS THE
DECISION TO ADD SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
INSTABILITY AND WIND TO KEEP THIS A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE
SURFACE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE MAIN IMPACT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM
APPROXIMATELY 07Z TO 14Z. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOW CIGS,
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 200 TO 300 FT. HOWEVER, KLAL AND KPGD DO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR/FG AS WELL IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINDOW OVERNIGHT TOMORROW FOR IFR/LIFR BEFORE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARMING EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD MATERIALIZE TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA, INCREASING MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY, THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EAST, NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
AND TOMORROW. TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, AND INCREASED WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED WITH RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 83 69 80 / 10 10 20 60
FMY 66 84 68 82 / 10 10 10 30
GIF 64 82 67 82 / 10 20 10 60
SRQ 64 84 68 80 / 0 10 20 50
BKV 59 83 63 80 / 10 10 30 70
SPG 67 81 70 78 / 10 10 20 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PEARCE
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